Alabama State enters the NCAA Division I Baseball Championship carrying the kind of momentum that can make a four-seed dangerous.
The Hornets, fresh off a SWAC Tournament championship and an unbeaten run through Rickwood Field, head to Sewell-Thomas Stadium for the Tuscaloosa Regional as the No. 4 seed. Their reward is a Friday night matchup with No. 1 seed and host Alabama, a team that already owns two wins over ASU this season. On the other side of the bracket, No. 2 seed Oklahoma State faces No. 3 seed USC Upstate in a regional that features power, postseason experience and three teams capable of putting up runs in bunches.
The regional opens Friday with Oklahoma State against USC Upstate at 1 p.m., followed by Alabama State against Alabama at 6 p.m. The tournament is double elimination, with the winner advancing to the Super Regional round.
Regional Field
No. 1 Alabama — 37-19 overall, 18-12 SEC
No. 2 Oklahoma State — 37-20 overall, 18-12 Big 12
No. 3 USC Upstate — 33-28 overall, 13-11 Big South
No. 4 Alabama State — 34-21 overall, 20-10 SWAC
Alabama State Hornets
Alabama State comes in at 34-21 overall and riding an eight-game winning streak. The Hornets were 20-10 in SWAC play and a perfect 7-0 in neutral-site games, a number that matters because this group just proved it can win tournament baseball away from home. ASU closed the SWAC Tournament with wins over Grambling State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff twice and Florida A&M to earn the league’s automatic bid.
Strengths
Alabama State’s lineup is balanced enough to win in different ways. The Hornets hit .281 as a team with a .391 on-base percentage, 57 home runs and 337 RBI. The biggest piece is Miguel Oropeza, who gives ASU a legitimate middle-order presence with a .366 average, 19 doubles, 11 home runs, 65 RBI, a .620 slugging percentage and a .464 on-base percentage. He is the type of hitter who can change an NCAA Regional game with one swing or one big at-bat with runners on base.
Niguel Jenkins has been another major run producer, hitting .331 with 15 doubles, six home runs and a .494 on-base percentage. Fabian Santana gives the Hornets a high-contact bat at .322, while Breydon Divine has started every game and provides stability in the middle infield. Devin Chandler has been one of ASU’s best on-base threats with 50 walks, 13 hit-by-pitches, eight home runs and a .461 on-base percentage.
The Hornets also have several power threats. Jackson Williams has 12 home runs and 45 RBI, while Trey Callaway leads the club with 16 home runs and 46 RBI. That gives Alabama State enough pop to answer a big inning and enough lineup depth to pressure pitching staffs that do not command the strike zone.
On the mound, James Peterson has been the most dependable arm, carrying a 7-1 record, 3.32 ERA, 81.1 innings and four saves. Jorhan LaBoy has handled the largest starting workload with 16 starts, 85.2 innings and 65 strikeouts. Camden Matthews has been valuable with a 3.49 ERA and six saves, while Caio Araujo has held opponents to a .179 batting average in limited work.
Weaknesses
The concern for Alabama State is run prevention. The Hornets have a 6.05 team ERA, and opponents are hitting .301 against them. ASU has also issued 260 walks and hit 79 batters. Against SEC and Big 12 lineups, free baserunners can turn into crooked numbers quickly.
The Hornets have allowed only 33 home runs, the fewest among the four Tuscaloosa teams, but they have allowed opponents to apply steady pressure with hits, walks and stolen bases. Opponents have attempted 168 steals and converted 136 of them. That could matter against Alabama and USC Upstate, two teams that run well and force defensive execution.
Defensively, ASU has a .964 fielding percentage with 71 errors. In a regional setting, the Hornets will need to cut down extra outs and avoid extending innings against more powerful lineups.
Key Players to Watch
Miguel Oropeza is Alabama State’s most complete offensive threat and the bat opposing staffs will game-plan around. Trey Callaway and Jackson Williams bring home run power. Devin Chandler is critical because he gets on base at a high rate and can extend innings. James Peterson is the pitching piece ASU may need in multiple roles, whether as a starter, bridge arm or late-game finisher. Jorhan LaBoy gives ASU its most proven starting workload.
Head-to-Head and Common Opponents
Alabama State played Alabama twice during the season and lost both games, 2-1 in Tuscaloosa on Feb. 18 and 13-4 in Montgomery on March 4. ASU did not play Oklahoma State or USC Upstate.
Against common opponents with Alabama — Auburn, South Alabama, Troy and UAB — ASU went 1-4, while Alabama went 5-3. Against common opponents with USC Upstate — Longwood, South Alabama and Valparaiso — ASU went 4-3, while USC Upstate went 4-6. Alabama State and Oklahoma State did not share a common opponent.
What It Takes for ASU
For Alabama State to win this regional, the Hornets have to make the games uncomfortable. That means getting runners on base ahead of Oropeza, Callaway and Williams, forcing opposing starters into high pitch counts, and keeping the score close enough for Peterson, Matthews and the best late-game arms to matter.
The formula is simple but demanding: limit free passes, protect the baseball defensively, steal a few momentum swings with two-out hits, and turn the regional into a pressure test. ASU does not need to outslug everyone for four straight games, but the Hornets cannot afford empty innings after leadoff baserunners or walks in front of the heart of opposing lineups.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is the host and top seed in Tuscaloosa with a 37-19 overall record and an 18-12 mark in the SEC. The Crimson Tide has already beaten Alabama State twice and enters with the deepest pitching staff in the regional.
Strengths
Alabama’s biggest advantage is run prevention. The Crimson Tide owns a 4.28 team ERA and has held opponents to a .246 batting average. That is the best pitching profile in this regional by a wide margin. Tyler Fay has been the staff workhorse, going 9-4 with a 4.70 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 90 innings. Zane Adams has 85 strikeouts in 76.1 innings, while Myles Upchurch is 8-3 with a 3.34 ERA and a .195 opponent batting average.
The bullpen gives Alabama several options. Hagan Banks has a 2.79 ERA and six saves. Matthew Heiberger has worked in 23 games with a 3.31 ERA. Ashton Crowther, Evan Steckmesser and others give the Crimson Tide matchup flexibility if games become bullpen contests.
Offensively, Alabama does not have the loudest team batting average in the regional, but it has several high-impact players. Brady Neal leads the regulars with a .328 average, 14 doubles, eight home runs, 43 RBI and a .440 on-base percentage. Bryce Fowler is hitting .316 with 17 doubles and 15 stolen bases. Justin Lebron is the lineup’s most dangerous speed-power threat with 14 home runs and 38 stolen bases in 39 attempts.
Alabama is also excellent on the bases, stealing 83 bags in 91 attempts. That efficiency could be a major factor against an Alabama State team that has allowed opponents to run often.
Weaknesses
Alabama’s lineup has been good, but not overwhelming by average. The Crimson Tide is hitting .253 as a team, the lowest batting average in the regional. They have power with 70 home runs, patience with 267 walks and speed, but the offense can go quiet if opponents keep the top of the order off base.
The Tide has also struck out 515 times and committed 73 errors. If ASU can avoid the big inning and force Alabama to play tight late, the Hornets may be able to create pressure with contact, baserunning and situational hitting.
Key Players to Watch
Brady Neal is the tone-setter in the lineup because of his average, power and on-base ability. Bryce Fowler gives Alabama a contact-and-speed threat. Justin Lebron may be the most explosive player in the regional because of his 14 home runs and 38 stolen bases. On the mound, Tyler Fay, Zane Adams and Myles Upchurch are the arms most likely to shape Alabama’s path through the weekend.
Head-to-Head and Common Opponents
Alabama swept the season series against Alabama State, winning 2-1 in Tuscaloosa and 13-4 in Montgomery. That gives the Crimson Tide a clear head-to-head edge entering Friday.
Against shared opponents outside the head-to-head series — Auburn, South Alabama, Troy and UAB — Alabama went 5-3, while Alabama State went 1-4. Alabama went 3-0 against Auburn, split with UAB and Troy, and lost once to South Alabama. ASU beat South Alabama but lost to Auburn, UAB and twice to Troy.
What It Takes for ASU to Beat Alabama
ASU’s best chance against Alabama is to make the opener look more like the 2-1 game than the 13-4 game. The Hornets need a strong start, likely from LaBoy or another top arm, and they need to keep Lebron and Fowler off the bases. Walks are dangerous against Alabama because the Tide can immediately turn them into extra-base pressure with the running game.
At the plate, ASU must force Alabama’s starter into deep counts. If the Hornets can get to the middle innings within one or two runs, the pressure shifts. A quick lead would also matter because it would force Alabama to manage its bullpen earlier than preferred in a double-elimination format.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State may be the most dangerous offensive team in the regional. The Cowboys are 37-20 overall, 18-12 in the Big 12, and bring one of the nation’s top power profiles to Tuscaloosa.
Strengths
The Cowboys hit .280 as a team with a .402 on-base percentage and a massive .562 slugging percentage. The number that jumps off the page is 137 home runs. No other team in this regional is close to that power total.
Kollin Ritchie is the centerpiece. He is hitting .335 with 29 home runs, 73 RBI, a .478 on-base percentage and an .828 slugging percentage. Alex Conover has been just as important, batting .383 with 14 home runs, 64 runs, a .496 on-base percentage and 15 stolen bases. Aidan Meola adds 17 home runs and 69 RBI, while Brock Thompson, Colin Brueggemann and Garrett Shull give the Cowboys more power throughout the order.
This is a lineup that can erase a deficit quickly. ASU cannot assume a three- or four-run lead is safe against Oklahoma State.
Weaknesses
Oklahoma State’s weakness is the same thing that gives every opponent in this regional hope: pitching. The Cowboys have a 6.24 team ERA and have allowed 76 home runs. They have also issued 275 walks. That creates scoring chances for opponents that can stay disciplined and avoid chasing early-count pitches.
Hudson Barrett has been the most efficient arm with a 3.05 ERA, while Ethan Lund has the highest strikeout ceiling with 127 strikeouts in 77 innings. Mario Pesca has six wins and 75 strikeouts, and Noah Wech has six saves. Still, the staff has had enough volatility that games can swing quickly in either direction.
Key Players to Watch
Kollin Ritchie is the headline name because of his 29 home runs. Alex Conover is the table-setter and complete offensive piece. Aidan Meola is another RBI threat. Ethan Lund can miss bats at a high level, while Hudson Barrett gives Oklahoma State a stabilizing arm if he is used in a key spot.
Head-to-Head and Common Opponents
Oklahoma State did not play Alabama State during the season, and the two teams had no common opponents. The Cowboys open against USC Upstate, a team they also did not face during the regular season.
Oklahoma State and Alabama had three shared opponents — Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Alabama went 5-4 against that group, while Oklahoma State went 2-2. Oklahoma State and USC Upstate shared Gardner-Webb as a common opponent; OSU went 2-1, while USC Upstate went 3-0.
What It Takes for ASU to Beat Oklahoma State
If Alabama State sees Oklahoma State, the game plan has to begin with damage control. ASU cannot give the Cowboys extra traffic in front of Ritchie, Conover and Meola. Solo home runs are survivable. Walks, hit batters and errors in front of multi-run homers are not.
Offensively, ASU must be patient. Oklahoma State’s pitching staff can strike hitters out, but it also gives up walks and home runs. The Hornets need Oropeza, Callaway, Williams and Chandler to make the Cowboys throw strikes. A lower-scoring game favors ASU less than Alabama, but a game in the 7-6 or 8-7 range could put the Hornets right where they want to be.
USC Upstate Spartans
USC Upstate is the No. 3 seed, but the Spartans are not a typical three-seed. They enter as Big South champions with a 33-28 record, a 6-1 neutral-site mark and an offense capable of turning a regional into a track meet.
Strengths
USC Upstate has the best team batting average in the field at .291 and pairs it with a .400 on-base percentage. The Spartans have 616 hits, 138 doubles, 70 home runs and 431 RBI. This is a deep, mature lineup with several hitters who can extend innings.
Henry Zenor leads the way with a .346 average, 92 hits, 18 doubles, eight home runs and 51 RBI. Wylie Waters is hitting .320 with 12 home runs and 50 RBI. Jake Armsey is at .309 with 19 doubles and 50 RBI. Tyler Lang is hitting .304 with a .431 on-base percentage, and Maloy Heaghney brings speed and production with 21 doubles and 22 steals.
Johnny Sweeney is another matchup problem. He has 12 home runs, 54 RBI and a .444 on-base percentage, helped by 29 hit-by-pitches. USC Upstate can score with hits, walks, extra-base power and pressure on the bases.
Weaknesses
The Spartans have a 5.89 team ERA and have allowed 82 home runs. Opponents have also attempted 247 steals and converted 196 of them. That is a major area Alabama State could exploit if the Hornets get runners on base.
USC Upstate’s road record is also a concern. The Spartans were 11-23 away from home, although their 6-1 neutral-site record suggests they have been better in tournament settings. The pitching staff has usable pieces, but it has not consistently shut teams down. Chris Torres, Brent Stukes and Max Kaplan have carried the heaviest starting workloads, while Jacob Kirby has been excellent in relief with a 3.91 ERA and two saves.
Key Players to Watch
Henry Zenor is the hit machine at the top of the scouting report. Wylie Waters, Johnny Sweeney and Maloy Heaghney are key because they combine power, on-base skill and pressure. On the mound, Chris Torres, Brent Stukes, Max Kaplan and Jacob Kirby are the names likely to determine how deep the Spartans can go.
Head-to-Head and Common Opponents
Alabama State and USC Upstate did not play this season. Their common opponents were Longwood, South Alabama and Valparaiso. ASU went 4-3 against those teams, while USC Upstate went 4-6.
The Longwood comparison is especially interesting. Alabama State went 2-1 against Longwood in Montgomery, while USC Upstate played Longwood six times and split 3-3, including three meetings in the Big South Tournament.
What It Takes for ASU to Beat USC Upstate
If ASU matches up with USC Upstate, the Hornets need to run and force defensive throws. The Spartans have allowed opponents to steal at a high volume, and ASU cannot leave that advantage unused. Divine, Santana, Chandler and the bottom half of the order need to put the ball in play and make USC Upstate handle pressure.
On the mound, ASU must keep Zenor, Waters, Heaghney and Sweeney from building big innings. USC Upstate is dangerous when the lineup turns over with runners on base. The Hornets do not need to overpower the Spartans, but they must avoid giving them extra baserunners through walks and hit batters.
The Path for Alabama State
The clearest path for Alabama State is to win the opener. Beating Alabama would immediately change the regional because it would force the host team into the loser’s bracket and allow ASU to play from a position of control. That is easier said than done, but the Hornets have already shown they can play Alabama close.
If ASU loses the opener, the road becomes much harder. The Hornets would need to win four straight elimination games, likely using every trusted arm on the staff. That makes pitching management critical from the first inning Friday.
For ASU to win the Tuscaloosa Regional, five things must happen:
- The Hornets must cut down free baserunners. Their offense is good enough to score, but walks and hit batters against Alabama, Oklahoma State or USC Upstate can lead to big innings.
- Oropeza must be protected. If teams pitch around him, Chandler, Williams, Callaway and the rest of the order must make them pay.
- Peterson and Matthews must be available in leverage spots. ASU’s best run-prevention arms cannot be wasted in low-impact innings.
- The defense must be clean. In a regional with three high-powered offenses, extra outs can decide games.
- ASU must carry over its tournament confidence. The Hornets were unbeaten in neutral-site games and swept through the SWAC Tournament. They will need that same edge in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama State is not the favorite on paper. Alabama has the home field and the pitching. Oklahoma State has the biggest power profile. USC Upstate has the deepest batting average and on-base lineup. But the Hornets have momentum, a true middle-order star in Oropeza and a tournament-tested roster that just won its way into the field.
If ASU can turn the regional into pressure baseball — tight games, runners in motion, late-inning at-bats and clean defense — the Hornets have a path to make Tuscaloosa more interesting than the seed lines suggest.