Looking into my crystal ball, I wonder if a Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) baseball program will ever earn an additional spot in the NCAA Division I postseason tournament. As it stands, the odds seem unlikely. To understand why, or why not, we need to examine what it takes to secure a second bid alongside the automatic entry for the conference champion.
The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is a tool used to rank collegiate teams based on their wins, losses, and strength of schedule.
Currently, the RPI comprises a team’s winning percentage, its opponents’ winning percentage, and the winning percentage of those opponents’ opponents. These elements collectively represent the strength of schedule (SOS). The SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is weighted as two-thirds opponents’ winning percentage and one-third of the winning percentage of those opponents’ opponents.
This system places a significant emphasis on the strength of schedule, which, in my opinion, is where the SWAC falls short.
While the SWAC dictates scheduling for conference games, member schools determine their non-conference schedules. Nine of the 12-member conference teams typically schedule games against HBCU NCAA Division II and NAIA opponents each year. These games are sometimes arranged with in-state rivals, for geographic convenience, to provide playing time for reserves, or even to pad win-loss records.
However, instead of committing to a full Division I schedule, comprised of “major” and “mid-major” opponents, SWAC teams often face a number of non-Division I opponents. This approach negatively impacts the SWAC’s conference RPI as well as individual teams’ RPI rankings.
Scheduling HBCU DII and NAIA opponents might result in victories, and we often see lopsided non-conference scores. But are these games truly beneficial?
Playing non-Division I opponents hurts RPI rankings despite victories. Run differential is irrelevant in RPI calculations, so it makes no difference whether a team wins by a large margin, secures an early run-rule victory, or barely ekes out a one-run win in extra innings.
Every win improves a team’s winning percentage. However, beating teams with poor records drags down SOS, thereby lowering RPI regardless of the margin of victory.
One illustrative example is a SWAC team that ended its season a few years ago with a 31-22 record. At first glance, this record might appear impressive to pollsters. However, 12 of those wins (with no losses) were against non-Division I opponents, in games where the team outscored its opponents by 131 to 23. Despite this success, the team finished the season with an RPI and SOS hovering around 300 (out of approximately 305 NCAA Division I baseball programs).
Scheduling DII and NAIA opponents is a high-risk, low-reward strategy. While these games might yield wins, they significantly harm RPI rankings and diminish any chance of earning additional postseason bids for the conference. SWAC teams that excel in conference play can still secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Regionals, but without a strong non-conference schedule, the conference will struggle to earn a second bid.
Programs like Alabama State University, Bethune-Cookman University, and Florida A&M University, which consistently schedule full Division I slates, are exceptions. However, even these schools face challenges when their SWAC peers fail to raise the collective RPI of the conference.
In my view, SWAC officials, athletic directors, and coaches should challenge their baseball programs to schedule more games against opponents from major conferences. If the SWAC adopts this approach, it could eventually secure more than one spot in the NCAA Division I Tournament Regionals.
I wonder if the SWAC and its member programs receive any scheduling recommendations. Regardless, I wholeheartedly believe that embracing stronger non-conference scheduling is a necessary step toward improving the conference’s RPI and postseason prospects.